www.AttendanceInstitute.org Welcome Absenteeism and GPA: Exploring the top
www.AttendanceInstitute.org Welcome Absenteeism and GPA: Exploring the top indicators of career and college readiness Symia Stigler Executive Director Attendance Institute AttendanceInstitute.org Attendance Institute The Attendance Institute, is a non-profit organization on a CRUSADE to position attendance as a top priority for school, families and communities. We know that improved performance, better grades, higher levels of engagement and achievement all begin with showing up to school. Time for Action & Investment It is time we use the extensive data and research available to inform action
Time to invest: Proven and innovative strategies High quality services Staff, the right number of people at all levels www.AttendanceInstitute.org 3 Key Areas of Focus 1. Raise Awareness Utilize the data and research available to raise attendance for all students as a top level school and community priority. 2. Build Capacity Help districts and communities find and fund the innovative services, technical assistance and dedicated staff required to increase attendance and ultimately increase graduation rates for all students. 3. Replicate What Works Solutions exist, we will continue to identify what works and replicate those efforts. Changing Trends & Improving Outcomes Main goal in our work is to identify and drive solutions that: Improve achievement and graduation rates for all students
Eliminate attendance and learning barriers Improve attendance Close process gaps Increase the levels of authentic engagement with families Target supplemental services to the students most in need attendanceinstitute.org Featured Speaker Elaine Allensworth, PhD Lewis-Sebring Director University of Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research (CCSR) About CCSR The mission of CCSR is to build capacity for school reform by identifying what matters for student success and school improvement and creating the critical indicators to chart progress. A number of features distinguish UChicago CCSR from other, more typical research organizations:
CCSR - a focus on one placeChicago - engagement with a diverse group of stakeholders, - a wide range of methods and multiple investigators, a commitment to sharing research findings with diverse publics. CCSR Todays Presentation Looking across all grades Pre-K to 12th grade Preschool and the early grades Middle grades High School Why are students absent? Changes in attendance over time Do Absences Matter? From preschool through high school, absenteeism has serious implications for students academic outcomes Students who are absent have:
CCSR - Lower test scores Lower likelihood of being on-track in high school Lower likelihood of graduating Lower course grades taking them out of the running for college completion Definitions Attendance rate = percentage of days present out of total days enrolled Absence rate = percentage of days absent out of total days enrolled Chronic absenteeism = missing 10% or more of days enrolled CCSR Absences include excused, unexcused, suspensions, and course cutting
CCSR Preschool and Early Grade Attendance Previous findings on the prevalence of preschool absences There are very high rates of absenteeism in preschool - About 40 percent of CPS preschool students are chronically absent Attendance improves substantially in kindergarten and the early elementary years CCSR Across a range of background characteristics, race has the strongest association with chronic absenteeism Students with lower preschool attendance have lower letter recognition scores on the K readiness tool
Not controlling for prior knowledge 90% correct 3 Logits 2.5 2 ** *** 68% correct 1.5 1 0.5 *** CCSR
0 * Indicates that scores are significantly different from scores of students with absences between 0% and 3.3% at p<.05 level; **p<.01; ***p<.001 Students with lower preschool attendance have lower kindergarten readiness scores on all subtests Not controlling for prior knowledge 90% 3.588% 3.2 79% 3.0 2.3 2.4 Logits
1.1 0.9 CCSR 0.5 0.0 * Indicates that scores are significantly different from scores of students with absences between 0% and 3.3% at p<.05 level; **p<.01; ***p<.001 Kindergarten readiness scores are lower for students missing 10% or more, even after controlling for prior skills and background 3.5 3 * Logits 2.5 2
** ** * ** *** *** 1.5 1 0.5 0 CCSR No controls Controlling for background and prior skills
Analyses control for prior achievement, prior preschool, race, gender, neighborhood poverty/social status, special education status, ELL status, and program type. * Indicates that scores are significantly different from scores of students with absences between 0% and 3.3% at p<.05 level; **p<.01; ***p<.001 The relationship between absences and kindergarten readiness scores is stronger for students with lower prior skills than for those with higher prior skills Logits 4.0 Letter Recognition Scores 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.5
Absence Rate CCSR Math Scores 4.0 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% Absence Rate Analyses control for prior preschool experience, race, gender, neighborhood poverty and social status, special education status, ELL status, and program type. Missing data points represent values with fewer than 30 students. Is attendance in preschool related to outcomes later on? Is attendance during preschool related to attendance in later grades?
How is attendance during preschool related to learning outcomes in 2nd grade? CCSR - How does being chronically absent over multiple years in the early grades (preschool through 2nd grade) relate to 2nd grade outcomes? The more children are absent in preschool, the lower their 2nd grade scores DIBELS Oral Reading Fluency Score 105 100 95 90 100.60 Some risk
Indicates that scores are significantly different from scores of students with absences between 0% and 3.3% at p<.05 level; **p<.01; ***p<.001 Not controlling for background characteristics CCSR Roughly 1/3 of chronically absent 4-year-olds continue to be chronically absent in kindergarten CCSR Average DIBELS Oral Reading Fluency Score Students with more years of chronic absenteeism have lower 2nd grade scores + 105 100 95 90
85 80 75 70 65 60 55 98.8 94.6 88.9 Some risk+ 81.3 72.9 At risk+ a la ly
c ni o r ) ch 0 7 3 t , No =4 (n t en s b eK r P ) n 81 i r ,3 Ch =1
(n eK Pr n ) r i 23 h C =4 (n +K K, e Pr n 5) i r 5 Ch n=2 ( K
n ,a d t 1s e ad r g ,K K e Pr ) n r i 06 h C =3
(n , an , t 1s d 2n d a gr de * Indicates that scores are significantly different from scores of students who are never chronically absent, at p<.05 level; **p<.01; ***p<.001 As outlined in the DIBLES 6th Edition Assessment and Scoring Guide (Good & Kaminksi, 2002). Some risk indicates the need for additional intervention.
At risk indicates the need for substantial interventions. Attendance matters, even for the youngest students Attending school regularly is particularly beneficial for students coming into school with lower skills CCSR Being chronically absent is related to - Lower academic and social-emotional outcomes at the end of preschool - Lower attendance in future years - For those who continue to be chronically absent, lower reading outcomes at end of 2nd grade CCSR Looking Forward to High School and College: Middle-Grades Indicators of Readiness
What do we mean by being successful in high school and college? Passing classes / Being On-Track - Strongly tied to high school graduation Getting As and Bs CCSR - Strongly tied to college enrollment, persistence and graduation from college What are the best indicators of high school success? Core GPA and attendance in eighth grade best predict whether students in high school pass and earn As or Bs Other information doesnt tell us more about who will pass, get high grades or get good test scores, including Race, gender, special education status, bilingual status, age Test and Subtest scores Grades in particular classes Yearly test score gains and test score growth over the middle grades Changes in grades over the middle grades
Perseverance, study habits CCSR Discipline records, suspensions Middle grade students with low grades or poor attendance are at high risk of being off-track in high school CCSR Students risk of being off-track in ninth grade by eighth-grade core GPA and attendance rate Note: Based on students entering ninth grade in the 2009-10 school year Only students with the best grades and attendance in middle school are likely (but not guaranteed) to earn As and Bs in ninth grade.
CCSR Students probability of earning As or Bs in ninth grade by core eighth-grade GPA and attendance rate Note: Based on students entering ninth grade in the 2009-10 school year CCSR Percent of Students Chronically absent middle grade students are very likely to be off-track for graduation in high school 9th Grade On Track by 8th Grade Attendance, 2009-10 First-Time Ninth Graders 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50%
77% 2-4% 8th Grade Absence Rates, 2008-09 9th Grade Off-Track 9th Grade On-Track for Graduation Source: Allensworth, Gwynne, Moore, & de la Torre (forthcoming) 14% 86% 0-2% Small improvements in attendance are associated with large improvements in later outcomes Predicted probability of being on-track in ninth grade for students with the most and least improvement in attendance (from fifth to eighth grade) among students with similar attendance, GPA and test scores in fifth grade
5th Grade Two students with identical achievement in 5th grade Through the middle grades 8th Grade Probability of being on-track in 9th grade 93% Attendance improves 99% Attendance CCSR
97% Attendance 2.8 GPA 225 Math ISAT 215 Reading ISAT 66% Attendance declines 93% Attendance CCSR High School Absenteeism CCSR In high school Absences almost double from 8th to 9th grade Source: Recreated from Rosenkranz, de la Torre, Stevens, & Allensworth
(forthcoming); updated with 2011-12 to 2012-13 data In high school Absences account for failure and declining grades What explains course failures in 9th grade? - Demographic & economic background characteristics explain 7% of course failures - Eighth-grade test scores explain an additional 5% (12% total) CCSR - Student behaviorsabsences and effortexplain an additional 61% (73% total) Students GPAs drop by half of a point from 8th to 9th grade, and this is almost completely explained by the increase in absences. Source: Allensworth & Easton (2007) and Rosenkranz, de la Torre, Stevens, & Allensworth (forthcoming) A ve rage N inth Grade GPA
In high school Absences hamper strong grades, even for high scoring students 3.5 3.0 GPAs by Absences among Students Scoring 16 on the EXPLORE, 2009-10 23% high-scoring students are absent 20 days or more 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.0 Ninth Grade Absences 2.5 2.3
1.8 5-9 days 10-14 days 1.5 CCSR Fewer than 5 days 15-19 days 20 days or more 1.0 Students Scoring 16 in EXPLORE Source: CCSR analysis of CPS administrative data In high school Absence is very predictive of dropout/graduation Each week of absence per semester in 9th grade lowers the
likelihood of graduating by 25 percentage points CCSR Chronically absent Average ninth grade absences per semester Based on incoming freshman in 2001-02 Source: Allensworth & Easton (2007) CCSR Why Are Students Absent? Many factors are common from preschool through high school - Health and health care - Family/background factors - Classroom and school factors
CCSR High school brings additional challenges In preschool Health, logistics, and family-related reasons account for 80 percent of why children miss school Reasons for Absences, 2011-12 12% Sick Wellness Appointment 5% 3% Chronic Illness Transportation Child Care
10% 54% Family-related 3% Vacation 5% Other CCSR 3% 4% Don't Know Note: "Other" includes school phobia, lack of sleep, religious observances, weather, safety issues, and a general other category .
Source: Ehrlich, Gwynne, Pareja, & Allensworth (2013) In preschool Besides illness, there are many obstacles that families face Obstacles families face Trouble getting child to/from school Parent/sibling sick Family emergency Child care issues CCSR Some family circumstances can make managing these obstacles more difficult Single parenthood, poor parental health, using public
transportation to school, living in poverty Source: Ehrlich, Gwynne, Pareja, & Allensworth (2013) In middle school and high school, illness is the primary reason for absences; other reasons become more common in high school Middle grade student survey responses 100% High school student survey responses 90% 80% 74% 74% 70% 60% 50%
40% 53% 51% 44% 6 or more times 3-5 times 1-2 times 33% 30% 20% 10% CCSR 0% Source: CCSR analysis of 2007 student survey data
In high school There are additional reasons for missing school High school context makes it more difficult for teachers to monitor and address student behavior Problems getting to school on time - Transportation issuesbuses, distance Safety - Avoiding fights Increased suspensions % Suspended Average # Days 14 4. 8 9th grade (2012-13) 21
5.7 CCSR 8th grade (2011-12) Source: CCSR analysis of 2009-10 CPS student interviews and 2011-12 to 2012-13 CPS administrative data In high school Classroom factors matter: The same student often has different attendance in different classes Some teachers students miss 13 days more per semester than other teachers students Among teachers who share the same students, and controlling for structural characteristics of the class Students are more likely to attend some of their classes than others: CCSR
- In the middle of the day (not 1st or 9th/10th period) - Their smaller classes those with fewer students - Their classes with higher-achieving peers Source: Allensworth & Luppescu (forthcoming) CCSR Attendance Improvements Systems and programs that promote better monitoring and support have shown improvements in attendance Know your districts data - What data elements are you pulling? How often? - What indicators can you track in your schools On-track data tools Examples such as CPS Check & Connect CCSR
May also be a need for coordination with other sectors Health care Transportation Safety Can schools have much of an influence on attendance? Yes! Schools with more supportive environments have better attendance than other schools serving similar students CCSR There have been substantial improvements over the last few years Thank you Attendance Institute Website University of Chicago CCSR
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