Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480

Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480

Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) [email protected] http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2010 February 11, 2010 Class News Ctools site: AOSS 480 001 W10 On Line: 2008 Class Reference list from course

Rood Blog Data Base Reading Make Up Class / Opportunity Make up Class on March 8, Dana 1040, 5:00 7:30 PM, Joint with SNRE 580 V. Ramanathan, Scripps, UC San Diego Please consider this a regular class and make it a priority to attend. Pencil onto calendar on April 6, Jim Hansen, time TBD. Class Projects Think about Projects for a while

The role of the consumer Energy efficiency / Financing Policy

Science influence on policy, Measurements of carbon, influence Role of automobile, transportation, life style Water, fresh water, impact on carbon, Geo-engineering, public education, emergency management, warning, Water, insurance, Midwest development, Michigan, regional Dawkins, socio-biology What leads to a decision What does it really mean in the village Geo-engineering, urban sustainability US Policy, society interest, K-12, education Project Teams Michigan Coal / Energy: Maggie Allan, Meghan Reynard, Evan Oswald, Yoichi

Shiga Efficiency as effective mitigation: Rebecca Taylor, Erin Kashawlic, Rajesh Nerlikar, Amanda Herrick Projects; Short Conversation Geo-engineering --- managing heating in the near-term / Role of Attribution / Managing the climate, what climate information is needed / Air quality Transportation / Automobiles / Energy / Market / Weather / Extreme Events / Agriculture / Carbon Sinks / Local Adaptation

Next week Groups that have organized a short presentation, discussion Title Your vision What disciplines are present in your group Today: complete the basic picture we need Aerosols Internal Variability Feedbacks: Response to a change in forcing Important details that we have to remember

Land surface / land use changes Other green house gases Air quality Abrupt climate change Summary Points Theory / Empirical Evidence CO2 and Water Vapor Hold Heat Near Surface Correlated Observations CO2 and Temperature Observed to be strongly related on long time scales (> 100 years) CO2 and Temperature not Observed to be strongly related on short time scales (< 10 years)

Observations CO2 is Increasing due to Burning Fossil Fuels Theory / Conservation Principle Mass and Energy Budgets Concept of Forcing Lets look at just the last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior. {

Note that on this scale, with more time resolution, that the fluctuations in temperature and the fluctuations in CO2 do not match as obviously as in the long, 350,000 year, record. What is the cause of the temperature variability? Can we identify mechanisms, cause and effect? How? Aerosols Aerosols are particulate matter in the atmosphere. They impact the radiative budget. They impact cloud formation and growth.

Aerosols: Particles in the Atmosphere Aerosols: Particles in the atmosphere. Water droplets (CLOUDS) Pure water Sulfuric acid Nitric acid Smog Ice Dust AEROSOLS CAN: Soot REFLECT RADIATION Salt ABSORB RADIATION

Organic hazes CHANGE CLOUD DROPLETS Earths aerosols Natural Aerosol Extreme Volcanoes and Climate Alan Robock : Volcanoes and Climate Change (36 MB!) Alan Robock Department of Environmental Sciences More Reflected

Solar Flux Stratospheric aerosols (Lifetime 1-3 years) backscatter absorption (near IR) H2S H SO 2 4 SO2 CO2 Ex

e siv o l p H 2O Solar Heating emission G IR N

I Heating IR Cooling EAT H T E N emission absorption (IR) Heterogeneous Less O3 depletion Solar Heating

forward scatter Ash Reduced Direct Flux Tropospheric aerosols (Lifetime 1-3 weeks) n ce s e i

Qu t Less Upward IR Flux SO2 H2SO4 Alan Robock Department of Environmental Indirect Effects on Clouds

Enhanced Effects Diffuse on cirrus clouds Flux Less Total Solar Flux ING L O CO NET

More Downward IR Flux Superposed epoch analysis of six largest eruptions of past 120 years Significant cooling follows sun for two

years Robock and Mao (1995) Year of Alan Robock eruption Department of Environmental The Earth System Aerosols (and clouds) Aerosols impact clouds and hence indirectly impact radiative budget through clouds

Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space Change their height Change their reflectivity Change their ability to rain Change the size of the droplets CLOUD ATMOSPHERE (infrared) SURFACE

Aerosols and Clouds and Rain Some important things to know about aerosols They can directly impact radiative budget through both reflection and absorption. They can indirectly impact radiative budget through their effects on

clouds both reflection and absorption. They have many different compositions, and the composition matters to what they do. They have many different, often episodic sources. They generally fall out or rainout of the atmosphere; they dont stay there very long compared with greenhouse gases. They often have large regional effects. They are an indicator of dirty air, which brings its own set of problems. They are often at the core of discussions of geo-engineering Radiative Forcing IPCC 2007 Today: complete the basic picture we need Aerosols

Internal Variability Feedbacks: Response to a change in forcing Important details that we have to remember Land surface / land use changes Other green house gases Air quality Abrupt climate change Lets look at just the last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO2 data from the

past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior. { Note that on this scale, with more time resolution, that the fluctuations in temperature and the fluctuations in CO2 do not match as obviously as in the long, 350,000 year, record. What is the cause of the temperature variability? Can we identify mechanisms, cause and effect? How?

Sources of internal variability This is natural variability. Solar variability Volcanic activity Internal dynamics Atmosphere - Weather Ocean Atmosphere-ocean interactions That does not mean that these modes of variability remain constant as the climate changes. Changes during El Nino

Internal Variability? There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. El Nino La Nina What is El Nino North Atlantic Oscillation Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation Annular Mode Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Times series of El Nino (NOAA CPC) EL NINO LA NINA OCEAN TEMPERATURE EASTERN PACIFIC ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE DIFFERENCE Some good El Nino Information NOAA Climate Prediction: Current El Nino / La Nina NOAA CPC: Excellent slides on El Nino

This is a hard to get to educational tour. This gets you in the middle and note navigation buttons on the bottom. GISS Temperature 2002 1997-98 El Nino An interesting time to study? Pacific Decadal Oscillation Does the Pacific Decadal Oscillation operate regularly lasting 20-30 years, and does

southern California experience droughts during that period? How is information gathered to support that? The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is one of several oscillations that are important to weather and climate. Some attributes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Information is gathered in the same way as climate and weather observations.

Routine Focused Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Basics Colors: Sea Surface Temperature difference from long term average. Arrows: Stress on the ocean surface caused by winds Warm here Better version of figure from JISAO Cool here Some information on Pacific Decadal Oscillation Joint Institute for Study of Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO):

Pacific Decadal Oscillation Climate Prediction Center (CPC): 90 Day Outlook Summary Weather and Climate Linkage National Climatic Data Center (NCDC): Decadal Oscillations Review Paper from Rood Class References Mantua and Hare (2002) J of Oceanography Today: complete the basic picture we need Aerosols Internal Variability

Feedbacks: Response to a change in forcing Important details that we have to remember Land surface / land use changes Other green house gases Air quality Abrupt climate change Changes in the sun

So what matters? THIS IS WHAT WE ARE DOING Things that change reflection Things that change absorption If something can transport energy DOWN from the surface.

More consideration of radiative energy in the atmosphere FEEDBACKS .... The idea that one thing causes a second thing to happen. That second thing then does something to the first thing It damps it, negative feedback It amplifies it, positive feedback Technical Reference: Soden and Held The Earth System: Feedbacks 1 Infrared Proportional to Temperature Assume that greenhouse gases remain the same

Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space Infrared emission is proportional to temperature Temperature increases emission increases T H T 0 t H T ATMOSPHERE (infrared)

SURFACE The Earth System: Feedbacks 2 Water Vapor When it gets warmer more water, a greenhouse gas, will be in the atmosphere Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space Higher temperature increases evaporation from land and ocean Higher temperature allows air to hold more water Increase of water increases thickness of blanket increases temperature more

This could runaway! Natural limit because of condensation clouds, rain? Compensating circulation changes? Think deserts ATMOSPHERE (infrared) SURFACE The Earth System: Feedbacks 3 Ice - Albedo When it gets warmer less ice

Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space Less ice means less reflection warmer Warmer means less ice This could runaway! Cooler works the other way ice-covered ICE The Earth System: Feedbacks 4 Clouds? Clouds are difficult to predict or to figure out the sign of their impact

Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space Warmer more water more clouds More clouds mean more reflection of solar cooler More clouds mean more infrared to surface warmer More or less clouds? Does this stabilize? Water in all three phases essential to stable climate CLOUD ATMOSPHERE (infrared)

SURFACE The Earth System: Feedbacks 5 Something with the Ocean? Is there something with the ocean and ice? Land ice melting decreases ocean salinity (density) Sea-ice impacts heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere Sea-ice impacts solar absorption of ocean North Atlantic sea-ice and ocean interaction very important to the climate Think Gulf Stream Think climate and people and economy Is there a natural feedback that stabilizes climate? Even if there is, it would be very disruptive, perhaps

not stable from a societal point of view. Cloud-Ice-Atmosphere Feedback Some carry away messages This is where much of the discussion about scientific uncertainty resides. The Earth is at a complex balance point That balance relies on water to exist in all three phases. Too warm could run away to greenhouse Too cold run away to snowball ice vapor How clouds change is not well understood and much argued.

The Iris Effect? Is there something in all of this that changes the sign; namely, that CO2 warming will be compensated by more cooling? Earth System: Ice SUN ICE: Very important to reflection of solar radiation Holds a lot of water (sea-level rise) Insulates ocean from atmosphere (sea-ice) Ice impacts both radiative

balance and water oceans and water resources on land. . Large local effects at pole. Large global effects through ocean circulation and permafrost melting. Might change very quickly. OCEAN CLOUD-WORLD

ATMOSPHERE LAND ICE (cryosphere) The Earth System: ICE (Think a little more about ice) non-polar polar glaciers glaciers

and (Greenland) snow (Antarctica) Impacts regional water supply, agriculture, etc. sea-ice Solar reflection, Ocean-atmosphere heat exchange Solar reflection,

Ocean density, Sea-level rise (Tour of the cryosphere, Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio) The Cryosphere TOUR OF CRYOSPHERE: MAIN NASA SITE Lets think about the Arctic for a while WWF: Arctic Feedbacks Assessment Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).

IPCC 2001 The Thermohaline Circulation (THC) (Global, organized circulation in the ocean) (The conveyer belt, rivers within the ocean) Blue shading, low salt Where there is localized exchange of water between the surface and the deep ocean (convection) Green shading, high salt

Warm, surface currents. Cold, bottom currents. From Jianjun Yin, GFDL, see J. Geophysical Research, 2006 The Earth System Increase greenhouse gases reduces cooling rate Warming SUN Solar variability Cloud feedback? Aerosols cool?

ATMOSPHERE Water vapor feedback accelerates warming Cloud feedback? OCEAN ICE LAND Changes in land use impact absorption and reflection Ice-albedo feedback

accelerates warming Abrupt climate change The predictions and observations so far are either in the sense of: Relatively small changes in the dynamic balance of the climate system Incremental changes to the stable climate. What about abrupt climate change? Note to professor: Force students to think and speak What might cause something to change abruptly in the climate system?

Lamont-Doherty: Abrupt Climate Change NAS: Abrupt Climate Change Wunderground.com: Abrupt Climate Chan ge What is a stable climate? LIQUID - ICE NOAA Paleoclimate Schlumberger Younger Dryas POSSIBLE EVIDENCE OF CHANGE IN OCEAN CIRCULATION

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? Next time: Fundamental Science of Climate

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